Reporter for Rubber & Plastics Weekly

　　 Like many people in the rubber industry, Mr. Hidde P. Smit is concerned about China. The shortage of natural rubber (NR) and the increase in rubber prices are all worrying.

　　 China is the world's largest consumer of natural rubber and synthetic rubber (SR), partly because China’s tire industry is experiencing a “blowout” development, Mr. Smit believes. In January of this year, he was appointed the Secretary-General of the International Rubber Study Group.

　　 According to Mr. Smit's prediction, China will consume 22% of the world's natural rubber production and 35% of synthetic rubber production by 2015, most of which will be consumed in the tire industry.

　　 Until 2002, the United States will continue to be the world's number one rubber consumption country, but its growth rate will be relatively small in the next 15 years. Mr. Smit added that the United States is the world's second-largest consumer of rubber after China.

　　Because of the limited area suitable for planting, China's own natural rubber production will not exceed 600,000 tons per year. However, in the future, China will produce a lot of synthetic rubber. As for the detailed figures, Mr. Smit thinks it is difficult to predict.

　　 In fact, due to the change of crops, the massive construction of infrastructure and other factors, including the failure of rubber forest renewal (although rubber forest renewal is still being done now), the country’s natural rubber production may actually be on the decline.

　　 Mr. Smit said this during July 26-27. At that time he attended the International Latex Conference in Charlotte, North Carolina, USA.

　　 At this meeting, Mr. Smit read out a paper on latex and expounded the views of IRSG. He predicted that there will be a shortage of natural rubber over a period of time.

　　ÔThis has something to do with when the natural rubber producing countries will plant the next batch of new saplings. If they plant next year, they will be able to tap rubber in 7 to 8 years. This is also related to how much natural rubber is replaced by synthetic rubber, Mr. Smit said.

　　Supply exceeds demand

　　 According to the Secretary-General, the global demand for rubber is increasing, but the supply of rubber cannot keep up. By 2020, the global rubber production capacity will be approximately 10 million tons per year, and the demand will be 12 million tons per year, with a shortfall of 2 million tons per year. ôMoreover, by then, the global rubber production capacity may not be able to reach 10 million tons per year. It depends on how each country responds in the near future, Mr. Smit said.

　　 Mr. Smit then predicted that in recent years, the price of natural rubber will rise to US$2/kg. Because the demand in the Thai market is in short supply, the No. 3 smoke sheet glue was 1.2 USD/kg at the beginning of 2005, and by July it had risen to 1.80 USD/kg.

　　 Mr. Smit also said that the above-mentioned changes may occur in any natural rubber producing country.

　　Whether it is in Malaysia or Thailand, the production capacity of natural rubber plantation industry has reached the highest level. The combined output of the two countries is about 3 million tons per year, and it will only gradually decline in the future because they have not completed the renewal of natural rubber forests in time. It is estimated that Malaysia's natural rubber production this year will rise from 1.08 million tons last year to 1.15 million tons. However, Mr. Smit said that he believes that Indonesia and Vietnam will play a greater role, and India may grow into a major natural rubber producer in the future.

　　 However, most of the natural rubber produced in India is consumed on the spot. Brazil and Guatemala will do better than they are now, which will have an impact on the world rubber industry.

　　As the world’s second natural rubber producer, Indonesia’s production capacity is worse than it should be able to achieve, because most of the rubber plantations have not been replanted in time for high-yielding new varieties of asexual reproduction, Mr. Smit added.

　　 It is not without progress. Indonesia’s natural rubber production was 1.5 million tons in 2000, and this year may rise from 2.07 million tons last year to the estimated 2.15 million tons, Mr. Smit commented.

　　 Mr. Smit said that Indonesia's natural rubber production will continue to increase, but the country must formulate an annual planting plan, only in this way can it achieve a dramatic increase in natural rubber production.

　　 Vietnam has great potential, but it is restricted by land. According to IRSG forecasts, by 2020, the country's annual natural rubber production can reach 750,000 tons.

　　 Political instability

　　 Political instability is a big problem facing the African continent. If African countries plant natural rubber trees, by 2020, the natural rubber production on this continent will be higher than it is now, reaching about 350,000 tons per year.

　　ÔWhen the price of natural rubber was low in 2000, we told them, ‘the time has come for a new breed of high-yielding asexual reproduction.’ At that time, the African political crisis had just passed, and natural rubber sold for 50 cents per kilogram. At that time, we predicted that the price would rise to at least US$1.50 per kilogram, and later to US$2 per kilogram, Mr. Smit said. Judging from the current situation, IRSG's prediction is correct.

　　 Mr. Smit pointed out that the rubber consumption in Europe is showing a downward trend. There are many factors, including less demand growth and the shift of manufacturing to Eastern Europe and even Asia.

　　This situation will continue in the future, ôHowever, it is not easy to predict accurately, the IRSG official said. ôThis is not much different from the situation in the United States or even North America. The growth rate is very low. If there is a slight increase, I also doubt whether it will last. Mr. Smit added.

　　 From 1995 to 2004, Mr. Smit served as the Dean of the School of Economics and Social Sciences at Free University in Amsterdam, the capital of the Netherlands, until he was promoted to the Secretary-General of IRSG on January 4 this year. During this period, he has provided consulting services to many large companies and international organizations in the world.